Space junk: will telcos be clouded by orbital obstruction?

Last month, the Long March 6A rocket took off from the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Centre in Xinzhou, China, successfully deploying the Yunhai 3 satellite into orbit. After being ignited and spent, the upper stage of the rocket began falling back to Earth, but instead of completing the return journey burned up, leaving more than 50 pieces of debris in low-Earth orbit (LEO).

This event may sound harmless in isolation, but the most recent European Space Agency (ESA) figures indicate that more than 630 of these events have occurred since 1957. With the widespread deployment of satellites seen today, this raises concerns for scientists and industry as wider proliferation of satellites will bring a greater chance of collision with debris that, in LEO, moves at speeds of up 15,700 miles per hour.

This is also a question telcos need an answer for as they move into a new phase of technology evolution. While digitalisation, cloud computing, and mixed realities are at the forefront of operators’ “TechCo” ambitions, 2.7 billion people worldwide remain unconnected, according to the latest data from the International Telecommunication Union (ITU).

The recent rise of LEO satellite initiatives and high-altitude platform station (HAPS) systems promises to offer a fresh opportunity to bring communications to these under-served communities, while also enabling the spread of new applications and services beyond the reach of current networks.

Reaching for a connected world

Saudi Arabia’s Communication, Space and Technology Commission (CST) Governor Mohammed Altamimi noted the ongoing scale of the global connectivity problem at the recent Connecting the World from the Skies conference, as well as asserting that societies can make steps towards a solution through satellite technology. He discussed the first ever 5G HAPS trial that took place over Saudi Arabia, which saw remote islands with no signal gain access to 90Mbps download speeds across a 450 sq. km area.

Ground infrastructure is clearly difficult to build on our oceans, often leaving the maritime industry unconnected. Projects looking at sea coverage are already underway, including a Telefónica partnership with Astrocast and ArrowSpot to track assets shipped overseas, using satellites to cover areas that cellular cannot reach (Telefónicawatch, #167). Another project, a collaboration between Intelsat and Marlink, aims to offer better signal coverage for customers on cruises.

With expectations on the rise, the production and launch of satellites will exponentially increase over time. A report from the US Government Accountability Office stated that, at the end of September, almost 5,500 active satellites were orbiting the Earth, and estimated this will climb to 58,000 by 2030. Mario Maniewicz, Director of the Communications Bureau at the ITU, spoke about this trend at Connecting the World. He cited many reasons for the satellite boom, including “lower cost, simpler design” as well as “flexible launching and payload carrying configurations”.

The ramp-up is creating worry. Founder and Chairman of LEO solutions provider e-Space Greg Wyler told Connecting the World that the current launch environment could “ruin our children’s futures”.

Navigating a crowded atmosphere

Altamimi summated one of the most vital discussion points at Connecting the World in a single phrase: the industry needs to focus on “maximising green energy, minimising the space debris”. A huge increase in satellite launches means more mass in our planet’s orbit, and, even with all of the brilliant minds behind these operations, human error will always be a factor.

In its latest Space Environment Report, the ESA stated that, as of November 2022, it was regularly monitoring 32,520 pieces of space junk. While tracking tech is improving, its estimates there are more than one million pieces of debris greater than 1cm in size in orbit, and 130 million pieces smaller than that, showing there is still a lot of work to be done.

Fears loom of ‘Kessler Syndrome’, which is a scenario where the orbital junk is so plentiful that pieces collide with each other, breaking up into smaller debris and increasing the chance of further collisions, as well as simultaneously making it harder for scientists to monitor. Eventually, atmospheric drag will pull debris back down to Earth, raising questions about whether the satellite debris will land safely in the ocean or crash into critical human infrastructure. The fear is that if further measures are not taken to clean up our orbit, a promising solution to the connectivity problem will be rendered moot.

Creating space for the digital world

The ESA, NASA, and wider satellite and space communications industries are all aware of the threat that space junk poses. Wyler at Connecting the World complimented the CST for placing the issue as a “top priority” for discussion at the three-day event.

Altamimi put across his belief that part of the solution is in “well-crafted regulation”, which is said to have seen progress this year. The US Federal Communication Commission stated in September that it will enforce a deorbiting policy, requiring LEO satellites to be removed from space within five years of mission completion, down from the previous timeframe of 25 years. The US Congress also passed the Orbital Sustainability Act, setting out the path the USA will follow to reduce space junk.

A number of more active solutions are in development, including ESA’s contract with Swiss startup Clearspace on the Clearspace-1 craft, which will be the first ever mission launched to remove space debris, targeting a 112kg rocket component that has been in orbit since 2013.

Earlier last month, it was reported that Chinese-based Origin Space Technology Co. confirmed that its NEO series satellites will soon be designed to drag space debris out of orbit. These solutions are a step in the right direction, but, as Altamimi noted in his keynote presentation at Connecting the World, it will be challenging to implement while ensuring a global digital economy “leaves no one behind”.

Rajeev Suri, Chief Executive of UK satellite operator Inmarsat, recently warned that plans for LEO ‘mega constellations’, including its own, risk creating a massive amount of space debris (BTwatch, #335). While he acknowledged that the role of new players, “with new investment and innovations”, is to be welcomed, he added that space is “too important an asset to be driven by short‑term thinking. To protect our shared future, there must be a common approach and common rules that protect the space environment too”.